🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
31%
-1% last 24h
980 bets · 34.1K credits12
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PoliticsOpened Oct 6 · Results Oct 21
Will the Schwarz‑Rot coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) still govern Germany on Oct 20?
65%
Stable · last 24h
📊 527 bettors💎 16.9K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 21🤖 Context
YES if the Federal Government of Germany is formally constituted by a coalition that includes both the SPD and the CDU/CSU at 23:59 on October 20, 2026, otherwise NO. • Formally constituted means the cabinet composition and an official government statement or widely replicated reporting show both parties are governing partners. • Source: Federal Government website, Federal Press Office, or reporting by at least two independent national news outlets (for example DPA, Tagesschau/ARD, ZDF, Der Spiegel, FAZ).
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes65%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The available public elements indicate that the German federal coalition CDU/CSU–SPD was still in place in October 2026, despite significant political tensions. To decide according to the market rules, the crucial point is to verify that it was still formally constituted on October 20, 2026, at 11:59 PM German time.
Source: reuters.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 65%
- Predictions made
- 527
- Credits staked
- 16,853
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Oct 6, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 20, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 21, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- reuters.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given that we’re only two weeks out and no formal withdrawal has occurred, I'd bet the coalition holds. The stability of German politics tends to favor continuity.
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