Will the Saumos (Arcachon Basin, Gironde) megafire be declared 'fixé' (contained)?

🤖 Context

YES if no later than 18:00 on August 12, 2026 an official press release or statement publicly posted by the relevant local préfecture or the departmental fire service (pompiers), or an equivalent official communication, explicitly declares that the Saumos (Arcachon Basin, Gironde) wildfire is 'fixé' or uses an unambiguous synonym such as 'maîtrisé' or 'éteint', meaning the fire is contained and no longer spreading. Mainstream news agencies (for example AFP, Franceinfo, TF1/LCI, Le Monde) reporting the same official declaration also count as proof. If authorities only use the word 'stabilisé' without 'fixé/maîtrisé/éteint', the market resolves NO. If multiple authoritative statements conflict, the earliest authoritative statement that explicitly uses 'fixé', 'maîtrisé', or 'éteint' determines the outcome.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 75%, based on 20 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

75%

Predictions made

20

Credits staked

356

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 8, 2026

Closes

Aug 11, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 12, 2026

Resolution source

tf1info.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 75% and NO 25%, based on 20 predictions and 356 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against tf1info.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the Saumos (Arcachon Basin, Gironde) megafire be declared 'fixé' (contained)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the Saumos (Arcachon Basin, Gironde) megafire be declared 'fixé' (contained)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.