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ScienceOpened Aug 8 · Results Aug 12
Will the Saumos (Arcachon Basin, Gironde) megafire be declared 'fixé' (contained)?
89%
Stable · last 24h
📊 293 bettors💎 6.6K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 12🤖 Context
YES if no later than 18:00 on August 12, 2026 an official press release or statement publicly posted by the relevant local préfecture or the departmental fire service (pompiers), or an equivalent official communication, explicitly declares that the Saumos (Arcachon Basin, Gironde) wildfire is 'fixé' or uses an unambiguous synonym such as 'maîtrisé' or 'éteint', meaning the fire is contained and no longer spreading. Mainstream news agencies (for example AFP, Franceinfo, TF1/LCI, Le Monde) reporting the same official declaration also count as proof. If authorities only use the word 'stabilisé' without 'fixé/maîtrisé/éteint', the market resolves NO. If multiple authoritative statements conflict, the earliest authoritative statement that explicitly uses 'fixé', 'maîtrisé', or 'éteint' determines the outcome.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes89%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 89% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The Gironde prefecture's official situational update dated 01/08/2026 explicitly states “Le feu est fixé” (the fire is fixed), and attributes the statement to local authorities (Préfète Sophie Brocas). Independent local/ national outlets (Humanité, TVBA) report the same: the minister/prefect and local authorities used the word “fixé” (and described the fire as fixed/under control) on 1 August 2026. Those sources show that local authorities explicitly declared the Saumos fire "fixé" (an unambiguous synonym of contained) prior to the cutoff of 2026-08-12 18:00.
Source: gironde.gouv.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 89%
- Predictions made
- 293
- Credits staked
- 6,586
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Aug 8, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 11, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 12, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- gironde.gouv.fr, humanite.fr, tvba.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 3 comments
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