Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

65%
-1% last 24h

69%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than September 5, 2026, an official incident status update from a primary incident authority (Texas A&M Forest Service incident page, InciWeb if used for the incident, or an official Palo Pinto County or Jack County emergency-management press release or webpost) reports the Ross Fire containment as 50% or greater, or explicitly states the fire is "contained" or "controlled" (treated as ≥50%). If the Ross Fire is merged into another incident record so that no separate on‑the‑record containment value is published for the Ross Fire by that deadline, the market resolves NO. If multiple authoritative sources publish differing containment values, any authoritative on‑record report showing ≥50% qualifies as YES.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 69%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven we're just over a week away from the deadline, and containment reports are still unclear, I'm skeptical this will reach 50% by then. Better odds it won't happen.

65%
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34%
Stable · last 24h

57%
Stable · last 24h

28%
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51%
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72%
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