Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

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YES if an official tropical-cyclone warning centre (for example the U.S. National Hurricane Center or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center) issues a public advisory that explicitly classifies the system Fox Weather calls "Invest 93E" as a tropical storm or stronger and assigns it an official name no later than 00:00 on September 4, 2026. A retroactive naming advisory counts if its advisory timestamp is on or before that deadline, and if multiple agencies issue conflicting advisories the earliest official advisory that assigns a name decides. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 4, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 4, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 36%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that we’re just a week away from the deadline, and Invest 93E is on track to intensify, I'd say it will get named. The NHC hasn’t been shy about naming systems this season.

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