Will the People's Liberation Army conduct and publicly announce sea or air military exercises at Scarborough Shoal or within 12 nautical miles?

🤖 Context

YES if the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, the People's Liberation Army, Chinese state media, AP, Reuters, BBC, or the Philippine Department of National Defense/Armed Forces report that the PLA conducted maritime or air military exercises, drills, or live‑fire at Scarborough Shoal or within 12 nautical miles no later than August 12, 2026. Reports only appearing on unverified social media without PLA confirmation or corroboration by at least two major wire services do not count. Reports describing only routine transits or presence, without exercises, drills, or live fire, do not count.