PoliticsOpened Aug 2 · Results Aug 12

Will the People's Liberation Army conduct and publicly announce sea or air military exercises at Scarborough Shoal or within 12 nautical miles?

45%

Stable · last 24h

📊 250 bettors💎 5.1K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Aug 12

🤖 Context

YES if the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, the People's Liberation Army, Chinese state media, AP, Reuters, BBC, or the Philippine Department of National Defense/Armed Forces report that the PLA conducted maritime or air military exercises, drills, or live‑fire at Scarborough Shoal or within 12 nautical miles no later than August 12, 2026. Reports only appearing on unverified social media without PLA confirmation or corroboration by at least two major wire services do not count. Reports describing only routine transits or presence, without exercises, drills, or live fire, do not count.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

45%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 55% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Multiple independent news outlets report that the PLA Southern Theater Command conducted joint naval and air drills in the waters and airspace around Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Dao) on/around 2026-08-01 and that the Southern Theater Command publicly announced the activity (news release/social-media post) and released video/images. Credible sources reporting this include USNI News, SCMP, Reuters (published via Yahoo), DW and RFI, all citing the PLA statement and state media coverage, establishing both that the drills occurred near Scarborough Shoal and that the PLA publicly announced them.

Source: news.usni.org