Will the Northern Ireland Assembly formally debate a no-confidence motion in Michelle O'Neill and three other Sinn Féin ministers?

🤖 Context

YES if no later than November 15, 2026, two or more independent Northern Ireland or UK news outlets report that the Northern Ireland Assembly held a formal floor debate on the motion of no-confidence in Michelle O'Neill and the three named Sinn Féin ministers, or the Assembly's official records show the motion was formally moved and debated on the Assembly floor. Otherwise NO. • Reports must explicitly state the motion was formally debated on the Assembly floor. Committee discussions or press comments that a debate "may" happen do not count. • Source: BBC Northern Ireland, The Irish News, Reuters, or Northern Ireland Assembly official records.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 37%, based on 437 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

37%

Predictions made

437

Credits staked

9,669

Comments

1

Opened

Oct 12, 2026

Closes

Nov 15, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 16, 2026

Resolution source

bbc.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 15, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 37% and NO 63%, based on 437 predictions and 9.7K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against bbc.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the Northern Ireland Assembly formally debate a no-confidence motion in Michelle O'Neill and three other Sinn Féin ministers?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the Northern Ireland Assembly formally debate a no-confidence motion in Michelle O'Neill and three other Sinn Féin ministers?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.