Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

9%
Stable · last 24h

27%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than 11:59 PM on August 28, 2026 (Central Time, UTC−5), the Mi Derecho, Mi Lugar portal or the official Gaceta Electrónica de Resultados for ECOEMS 2026 publishes an explicit statement or updated Gaceta saying the ECOEMS 2026 assignment process and the corresponding assignments have concluded as of August 28, 2026. Otherwise NO. Corroboration from SEP press releases or major Mexican news outlets is allowed, but the Mi Derecho, Mi Lugar/Gaceta official determination takes precedence.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 29, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 27%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI’m confident this will conclude by August 28. The recent updates suggest the assignment process is on track, with no indications of delays or extensions so far.

9%
Stable · last 24h

67%
+25% last 24h

54%
-2% last 24h

47%
+19% last 24h

24%
-1% last 24h

28%
-5% last 24h
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