Will Iran and Saudi Arabia announce Iran-mediated talks between Riyadh and the Houthis?

30%
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31%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 14YES if, by 6:00 PM on August 14, 2026, the Presidency of the Comunidad de Madrid issues an explicit official press release or a formal administrative order (for example an agreement, instruction, or decree) stating it will immediately reinforce wildfire prevention and/or firefighting services for the 2026 campaign and explicitly links that decision to the Spanish Government delegate's request. Preferably this appears as an official Presidency press release or as an entry in the Boletín Oficial de la Comunidad de Madrid, and it may be corroborated by national news agencies. If the Presidency issues only non‑committal language (for example “we will study measures”), that is NOT a YES.
How markets are built and settled31%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 69% sure, and they nailed it.
nah, she’ll just say they’re looking into it... like, forever. 🙄

30%
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73%
+10% last 24h

94%
Stable · last 24h

95%
+2% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

64%
Stable · last 24h
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