Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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60%
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Resolved: No
Results Jul 20This market resolves to YES if the CLARITY Act secures at least 7 Democratic votes in the Senate by July 17, 2026; NO if it receives fewer than 7.
How markets are built and settled60%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 60% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: - Premise (senate.gov): The Senate’s official site lists the most recent roll-call votes on July 15–16, 2026 (nominations and S.J.Res. 198) and shows the Previous Meeting was Thursday, July 16, 2026, with the next meeting set for Monday, July 20, 2026. The CLARITY Act does not appear among those recent roll-call votes. Source: senate.gov. → Inference: The Senate did not hold a floor roll-call vote on the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2026 (no meeting that day) and none occurred before that date in mid-July. → Conclusion: By July 17, 2026 there were zero Democratic Senators recorded as voting in favor of the CLARITY Act on the Senate floor. - Premise (CryptoSlate, Jun 24, 2026): At the Senate Banking Committee’s May 14 markup, the CLARITY Act advanced 15–9; all 13 Republicans were joined by two Democrats (Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks). → Inference: The only recorded Senate vote on the CLARITY Act involving Democratic Senators before July 17 had exactly 2 Democratic “yes” votes. → Conclusion: By July 17, 2026, the total number of Democratic U.S. Senators recorded as voting in favor in any Senate roll-call/recorded vote on the CLARITY Act was at most 2, which is fewer than 7. - Supporting premises (CoinDesk Jul 9, Yahoo/Benzinga Jul 17): Reporting indicates no Senate floor vote had yet been scheduled/held by July 17, with expectations aimed at the week of July 20 and ongoing negotiations. → Inference: Confirms absence of any floor roll-call on the CLARITY Act by the resolution date. → Final conclusion: The CLARITY Act did not secure at least 7 Democratic Senators recorded as voting in favor by July 17, 2026.
Source: senate.govSources used to resolve this market
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