🌋Science·GeologyCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 28
Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?
28%
Stable · last 24h
230 bets · 9.7K credits4
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ScienceOpened Oct 18 · Results Oct 20
Will Starship make at least one more orbital flight that completes a full orbit within 21 days of its first orbital flight?
11%
Stable · last 24h
📊 255 bettors💎 9.7K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 20🤖 Context
YES if at least one Starship system flight occurring in the 21-day window after the first orbital flight on 28 September 2026 achieves orbital insertion and completes at least one full orbit, otherwise NO. • The 21-day window means flights strictly after 23:59:59 UTC on 28 September 2026 and on or before 23:59:59 UTC on 19 October 2026. • Flights that occurred before 21:02:11 UTC on 18 October 2026 do not count. • Suborbital flights or launches that fail before completing a full orbit do not count. • Source: SpaceX post-flight statement plus independent orbital-tracking records or corroborating mainstream reports.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No11%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 89% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: NO, it is not the resolution according to the public information consulted
Source: spacex.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 11%
- Predictions made
- 255
- Credits staked
- 9,675
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Oct 18, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 19, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 21, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- spacex.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 3 comments
- 💎
• First orbital flight (Flight 14): It took place on September 28, 2026. • 21-day deadline: This 21-day period ended on October 19, 2026. • Next flight (Flight 15): The fifteenth flight did not take place within this timeframe; it is scheduled for as early as November 8, 2026.
- 👽
No
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
With less than 26 hours to go, it's unlikely that Starship will pull off another orbital flight in time. The window is tight, and past performances don't inspire confidence.
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