Will Sophie Adenot take part in an ISS spacewalk where every listed participant is female?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 30, 2026, at least one officially documented ISS EVA lists Sophie Adenot as an EVA participant and the official EVA records or mission-status press releases from NASA, ESA, or an equivalent agency show that every person listed as an EVA participant for that EVA is explicitly reported as female. Aborted EVAs with no documented exit from the ISS airlock do not count. If NASA and ESA records conflict, NASA or ESA mission status/EVA summaries are the preferred evidence.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 58%, based on 36 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

58%

Predictions made

36

Credits staked

1,319

Comments

2

Opened

Aug 28, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 58% and NO 42%, based on 36 predictions and 1.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot take part in an ISS spacewalk where every listed participant is female?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot take part in an ISS spacewalk where every listed participant is female?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.