Will the Falcon 9 first stage on Starlink 15-16 land successfully on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You'?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 1The market required that by September 30, 2026 at least one officially documented ISS EVA list Sophie Adenot as a participant and that official NASA, ESA, or equivalent records explicitly show every person who exited the airlock for that EVA was female, with aborted EVAs that have no documented exit not counting. On September 1, 2026 NASA's Space Station blog reports a completed EVA in which Sophie Adenot and Jessica Meir exited the airlock, and contemporary reports described the spacewalk as an all-female EVA. Because that officially documented EVA on September 1, 2026 included Adenot and every person who exited the airlock was female, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled67%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent sources in the supplied evidence corroborate that an ISS EVA on 2026-09-01 included ESA astronaut Sophie Adenot and that all crewmembers who exited the airlock for that EVA were female. Numerama (French) reports that on 1 September Sophie Adenot completed her third spacewalk, this time with American Jessica Meir, describing it as a '100 % féminine' EVA (two women). SpacePolicyOnline's week-ahead summary (Aug 30–Sep 5, 2026) identifies a 1 September EVA to be conducted by Jessica Meir and Sophie Adenot and describes it as an all-female spacewalk. The NASA Space Station blog entry (2026-09-01) listed in the evidence is the official NASA report of a completed navigation-and-science spacewalk on that date. Together these independent accounts establish that an officially documented ISS EVA on 2026-09-01 included Sophie Adenot and that the EVA participants who exited the airlock were all female (Meir and Adenot). No supplied source contradicts this.
Source: numerama.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledNo
With only a month left, the odds are slim for Adenot to be listed on an all-female EVA from the ISS. The documentation has to come soon, and I’m skeptical it will.

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