🌋Science·GeologyCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 28
Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?
34%
Stable · last 24h
287 bets · 11.9K credits6
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ScienceOpened Aug 5 · Results Oct 1
Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth with a landing or splashdown?
83%
Stable · last 24h
📊 109 bettors💎 2.7K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 1🤖 Context
The rule required public documentation that Sophie Adenot completed a physical return to Earth, by touchdown or splashdown, no later than September 30, 2026, confirmed by ESA or NASA mission reports or by two independent major news organizations. Contemporary reports dated September 30, 2026, including articles in the Tri‑City Herald and Talk of Titusville and a NASA newsroom item, list Adenot as still a Crew‑12 member aboard the ISS and note preparations to welcome Crew‑13 for an October 1 launch. Because no source documents a touchdown or splashdown for her on or before that deadline, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No83%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 83% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Contemporaneous, independent reporting dated 2026-09-30 shows Sophie Adenot was still part of the on-orbit Crew-12 and that Crew-13 was scheduled to launch Oct 1 to relieve them. In particular, the supplied Tri‑City Herald and Talk of Titusville articles (both 2026-09-30) list Adenot as a current Crew‑12 member aboard the ISS, and the NASA newsroom item dated 2026-09-30 discusses preparing to welcome Crew‑13. Those contemporaneous reports are positive evidence that Adenot had not completed a physical return (touchdown or splashdown) by 2026-09-30. None of the supplied sources report a landing/splashdown for her on or before that date.
Source: nasa.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 83%
- Predictions made
- 109
- Credits staked
- 2,660
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Aug 5, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 30, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 1, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- nasa.gov, talkoftitusville.com, tri-cityherald.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
She has about 56 days left for a documented return, and with no news yet, it looks like a no for now. Unless something changes dramatically, I wouldn’t bet on it.
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