PoliticsOpened Aug 3 · Results Aug 3

Will residents of Le Porge be allowed to return home?

85%

Stable · last 24h

📊 131 bettors💎 4K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Aug 3

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than 2:00 PM on August 3, 2026, an official statement, order, or press release from the municipal authority of Le Porge or the Préfecture explicitly says residents of the commune are allowed to return to their homes, or if mainstream reporting quotes such an official statement. If an official text authorises return only to a clearly named subset of residential streets or areas within Le Porge, that counts as YES. If authorities only permit limited or gradual access without explicitly lifting the evacuation order or naming Le Porge, that counts as NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

85%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Multiple independent news outlets report that the prefecture authorised returns to Le Porge on Monday 3 August 2026. Huffington Post (AFP) explicitly states the prefecture authorised returns “à partir de ce lundi 3 août à 14 h 00.” France24 (AFP) reports that inhabitants of Le Porge were authorised to regagner leur domicile on Monday (with two neighbourhoods excluded pending demining). France3 Régions and RFI-syndicated reports likewise state Le Porge would be accessible/returns allowed from Monday afternoon. These independent reports unambiguously state that, by 14:00 CEST on 2026-08-03, residents of Le Porge had been explicitly authorised to return (with specified local exceptions).

Source: huffingtonpost.fr

Key facts

Crowd probability: 85%
Predictions made: 131
Credits staked: 4,031
Comments: 2
Opened: Aug 3, 2026
Closes: Aug 3, 2026
Resolved: Aug 3, 2026
Outcome: Yes
Resolution source: huffingtonpost.fr, france24.com, france3-regions.franceinfo.fr