🌋Science·GeologyCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 28
Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?
29%
Stable · last 24h
236 bets · 10K credits5
Details →
ScienceOpened Oct 12 · Results Oct 16
Will Papua New Guinea record an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?
61%
Stable · last 24h
📊 385 bettors💎 16.3K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 16🤖 Context
The market required a USGS-listed earthquake with a numeric magnitude of at least 5.1 in Papua New Guinea between 00:00 UTC on October 13, 2026 and 00:00 UTC on October 16, 2026. The USGS recorded three qualifying events on October 13, 2026: 14:36 UTC magnitude 5.3 at 129 km south of Kokopo, 16:28 UTC magnitude 5.1 at 123 km south of Kokopo, and 18:45 UTC magnitude 6.0 at 126 km south of Kokopo. All three magnitudes meet the 5.1 threshold and their timestamps fall inside the stated window, so the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes61%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: USGS catalog must list ≥1 earthquake with numeric 'mag' ≥ 5.1 in Papua New Guinea at or after 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-10-16T00:00:00Z. Observations (USGS query returned 3 matching events): 2026-10-13 14:36 UTC — M5.3 (129 km S of Kokopo, PNG); 2026-10-13 16:28 UTC — M5.1 (123 km S of Kokopo, PNG); 2026-10-13 18:45 UTC — M6 (126 km S of Kokopo, PNG). Each event's numeric mag value (5.3, 5.1, 6.0) is ≥ 5.1 and each timestamp lies within the stated window, so the condition is satisfied → YES.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 61%
- Predictions made
- 385
- Credits staked
- 16,287
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Oct 12, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 13, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 16, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 👽
If earthquake
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
With Papua New Guinea's recent seismic activity showing seven quakes above 4.5 in the past week, the likelihood of a 5.1 event during the betting window is pretty solid. I'm leaning YES here.
Related predictions
See all →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will an El Niño be explicitly declared as occurring?
77%
Stable · last 24h
985 bets · 35.6K credits10
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will SpaceX make at least one Starship orbital launch attempt that achieves vertical liftoff?
63%
Stable · last 24h
963 bets · 33.6K credits11
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Nov 23 · Results Nov 24
Will an Ariane 6 launch from Kourou and deploy 36 Amazon LEO satellites on November 23?
42%
+1% last 24h
223 bets · 10.1K credits3
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Dec 1
Will SpaceX attempt to recover both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship orbital vehicle?
80%
Stable · last 24h
207 bets · 7K credits2
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Oct 30
Will Super Typhoon Champi make landfall on the island of Taiwan?
40%
-3% last 24h
182 bets · 6.5K credits3
Details →