🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
32%
-1% last 24h
959 bets · 33.5K credits12
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PoliticsOpened Oct 6 · Results Oct 21
Will Northern Ireland's First Minister O'Neill resign from office?
34%
Stable · last 24h
📊 449 bettors💎 10.7K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 21🤖 Context
YES if, on or after 7:00 AM UTC on October 6, 2026 and no later than October 20, 2026, two or more independent authoritative news organisations report that First Minister O'Neill has publicly resigned from the office of First Minister of Northern Ireland. Otherwise NO. • Reports must state she announced a resignation that takes immediate effect, or an official government release says she has vacated the office or been replaced. • Reports that she only announced an intention to resign effective after October 20, 2026, or that she "may" step down, do not count. • Source: BBC and Reuters.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No34%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: No independent media reported Michelle O'Neill's resignation from her position as First Minister of Northern Ireland between October 6 and October 20. She remained in office.
Source: bbc.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 34%
- Predictions made
- 449
- Credits staked
- 10,717
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Oct 6, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 20, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 21, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- bbc.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
O'Neill's position seems stable for now, with no immediate signs of resignation. Given the context, I doubt two sources will report a resignation before October 20.
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