Will a humanitarian ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian forces begin on October 27?

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YES if Movimiento Ciudadano publicly announces the name of the person it presents as its official candidate for governor of Nuevo León for the 2027 election between 19:01:48 UTC on October 17, 2026 and no later than December 4, 2026. Otherwise NO. • The announcement must name the person and come from a party press release, an on-the-record statement by an authorized Movimiento Ciudadano official, or by filing with the competent electoral authority. • The announcement must be reported by two or more independent Mexican national news outlets. • A short-list, an informal leak, a social-media post from an unauthorized account, or a statement that does not explicitly name a party candidate does not count. • Source: Movimiento Ciudadano and independent Mexican national news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 68%, based on 5 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing, Movimiento Ciudadano will likely announce their candidate by December. They're under pressure for a solid candidate after prior elections, so I expect it to happen.

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94%
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94%
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40%
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65%
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