🌋Science·GeologyCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 28
Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?
29%
Stable · last 24h
246 bets · 10.3K credits5
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ScienceOpened Oct 20 · Results Oct 24
Will Mexico record an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?
56%
Stable · last 24h
📊 282 bettors💎 10K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 24🤖 Context
The market required at least one USGS-listed earthquake with a numeric magnitude of 4.9 or greater located in Mexico with origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on October 21, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on October 24, 2026. The USGS earthquake catalog shows zero earthquakes of magnitude 4.9 or greater located within Mexico between 00:00 UTC on October 21, 2026 and 00:00 UTC on October 24, 2026. Because the rule required at least one such event and none were listed, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No56%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: USGS must list >=1 earthquake with a numeric "mag" >= 4.9, with origin time >= 2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-10-24T00:00:00+00:00, recorded as located within Mexico. Observed data: the supplied USGS catalog query (the market's own query) returned "0 matching earthquake(s) (no matching earthquakes)" for parameters starttime=2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00, endtime=2026-10-24T00:00:00+00:00, minmagnitude=4.9 and the Mexico bounding box (minlatitude=14, maxlatitude=33, minlongitude=-118, maxlongitude=-86). Comparison: 0 events found, which is fewer than the >=1 required, so the condition is not met. Therefore the correct resolution is NO.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 56%
- Predictions made
- 282
- Credits staked
- 9,962
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Oct 20, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 21, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 24, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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