Will Iran and Saudi Arabia announce Iran-mediated talks between Riyadh and the Houthis?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 6YES if there is publicly available evidence that on August 6, 2026 Felipe VI and Juan Jesús Vivas met in person at the Palacio de Marivent in Palma de Mallorca, meaning both were physically present at the same location. Acceptable evidence includes a Casa de S.M. el Rey (Casa Real) press release or photos/press materials from the Royal Household, or reporting by major Spanish news outlets such as EFE, RTVE, or El País that cite Casa Real or show photographic proof. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settled50%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 50% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: - Premise (Cadena SER, 2026-08-06): An article dated 06/08/2026 states the King will receive Juan Jesús Vivas “este jueves” (this Thursday) at 18:00 at the Palacio de Marivent in Palma. This anchors the date and location for the planned meeting on 2026-08-06 at Marivent. Source: cadenaser.com. - Premise (Diario de Ávila): Reports after the fact that “El Rey Felipe VI ha recibido la tarde de este jueves en el Palacio de Marivent de Palma al presidente de Ceuta, Juan Jesús Vivas,” adding Vivas arrived about 17:50 and the King greeted him at the doors with a handshake before they went inside. This explicitly places both Felipe VI and Vivas physically at Marivent together that Thursday. Source: diariodeavila.es. - Inference: “Este jueves” in the post-event report refers to the same Thursday as the scheduled audience, which the dated Cadena SER article shows is 2026-08-06. The handshake and reception at the palace doors confirm in-person presence of both at Marivent on that date. - Conclusion: Felipe VI and Juan Jesús Vivas met in person at the Palacio de Marivent in Palma de Mallorca on 2026-08-06.
Source: cadenaser.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith only 20 hours left, there's little chance Felipe VI and Vivas meet without concrete evidence. Given the timeline, I'm betting on a NO here.

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