Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

31%
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32%
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YES if Kenia López Rabadán publicly delivers (live or recorded) her 'Informe de Actividades legislativas' to the Chamber of Deputies on the Mexico City local calendar date August 17, 2026, as shown in the Chamber of Deputies' official communications (press release, event calendar entry, plenary minutes or uploaded video) or by contemporaneous reporting in at least one independent Mexican national news outlet. Otherwise NO. Posting only a written report online on August 17, 2026 without a public presentation that day does not count as YES.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against comunicacionsocial.diputados.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 32%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's likely Kenia López Rabadán will deliver her report on the 17th. With just under a week left, expectations are building and official channels will likely push for the event.

31%
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43%
Stable · last 24h

73%
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18%
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42%
Stable · last 24h

20%
-1% last 24h
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