Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

68%
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45%
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YES if an official judicial instrument described as an 'auto de apertura de juicio oral' that opens an oral criminal trial against Begoña Gómez is formally issued, publicly recorded, and identified as issued by Judge Juan Carlos Peinado no later than September 30, 2026. The issuance must be reported by at least two independent Spanish national news outlets and, if available, reflected in the Audiencia Provincial de Madrid's procedural record. Otherwise NO, and a prosecutor's indictment or charging document alone without a judge's 'auto de apertura de juicio oral' is not sufficient.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 45%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline and the requirement for an official ruling, it's likely we'll see Peinado issue this order before the end of the month.

68%
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63%
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46%
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38%
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83%
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70%
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