Will a humanitarian ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian forces begin on October 27?

70%
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45%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, between September 27, 2026 and no later than October 31, 2026, Jonathan Wilkinson is publicly recorded as having been sworn in, accredited, or having officially taken up the office of Canada's Ambassador to the European Union. Otherwise NO. • Counts: an official swearing-in, presentation of credentials, or a government statement saying he has been sworn in or has assumed office. • Preferably confirmed by Global Affairs Canada appointment or credentials records, but reporting by two or more independent Canadian news outlets is also sufficient. • Source: Global Affairs Canada or two or more independent Canadian news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against cbc.ca. For now, the crowd puts YES at 45%, based on 403 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWilkinson's likely to be sworn in, given the official timeline and the government's commitment to appoint him. Expect confirmation soon from reliable sources.

70%
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74%
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94%
Stable · last 24h

94%
Stable · last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h
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