Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 30YES if the official website of the Senate of Spain lists, on or before 12:00 on July 30, 2026, a current senator entry for "Jesús Aguirre" that explicitly shows he was appointed (designación autonómica) by the Parliament of Andalusia. NO otherwise. If the Senate's site shows the name without explicitly associating it with Andalusia or shows only a provisional or pending status, resolve NO. Only pages published on the Senate's official site count. Media reports, PDFs on other domains, or social media do not count.
How markets are built and settled15%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 85% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent reputable news outlets report that the Parliament of Andalusia’s Plenary designated its autonomous senators on 23 July 2026 and that Jesús Aguirre was among those appointed by designación autonómica. EFE (23 Jul 2026) states Aguirre “será nuevo senador por designación autonómica”; La Opinión de Málaga (23 Jul 2026) reports the Pleno “ha designado este jueves a los nueve senadores” including Jesús Aguirre; Canal Sur and other outlets (ABC, El País, Diario de Sevilla) likewise report his nomination/appointment and his resignation from the Andalusian Parliament to assume the Senate seat. Those independent, dated reports establish that by 30 July 2026 (12:00 CEST) Jesús Aguirre was a senator appointed by the Parliament of Andalusia.
Source: efe.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledi mean, is anyone actually betting on this guy? he’s about as likely to be a senator as i am to win a dance-off. 😂

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