Will Jérôme Guedj be listed as a validated candidate in the Socialist Party primary?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than November 15, 2026, the Socialist Party (PS) has publicly listed Jérôme Guedj among its validated/registered candidates for the PS primary to choose the party's 2027 presidential nominee, shown by the PS's published candidate list or an official PS press release, or reported by at least one major French news organization (AFP, Franceinfo, Le Monde, Le Figaro). Social‑media‑only posts are not sufficient proof unless reproduced in a major news report. If the PS cancels its primary before that deadline the market is NO unless the PS had already validated and published Guedj's candidacy prior to cancellation.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 84%, based on 95 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

84%

Predictions made

95

Credits staked

4,336

Comments

3

Opened

Sep 15, 2026

Closes

Nov 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 16, 2026

Resolution source

franceinfo.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 84% and NO 16%, based on 95 predictions and 4.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against franceinfo.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Jérôme Guedj be listed as a validated candidate in the Socialist Party primary?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Jérôme Guedj be listed as a validated candidate in the Socialist Party primary?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.