Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.8 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake of magnitude 4.8 or greater that occurred in Japan on or after 00:00 UTC on August 21, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on August 24, 2026. Otherwise NO. The USGS earthquake catalog will be used to decide, and corroboration from national agencies such as JMA, IRIS/EMSC, or major media is acceptable.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 24%, based on 81 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

24%

Predictions made

81

Credits staked

2,031

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 20, 2026

Closes

Aug 21, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 24, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 21, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 24% and NO 76%, based on 81 predictions and 2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.8 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.8 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.