🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 10 · Results Oct 11
Will SpaceX launch Starlink 15‑25 (27 V2 Mini satellites) from Vandenberg on October 10?
65%
-12% last 24h
368 bets · 15.9K credits5
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ScienceOpened Sep 22 · Results Sep 26
Will Hurricane Polo make landfall on Mexican territory (mainland or Mexican islands)?
67%
Stable · last 24h
📊 116 bettors💎 2.5K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 26🤖 Context
The market requires that, on or before September 25, 2026, an operational advisory or an official statement from SMN (CONAGUA), the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC/NOAA), or a Mexican Protección Civil authority explicitly state that Hurricane Polo's center crossed the coastline of Mexican territory. By September 25, 2026 multiple credible news and weather outlets reported Polo remained offshore, with Reuters on September 25 saying the storm was moving away from Mexico's Pacific coast into open waters, and BBC, AccuWeather, UPI, NPR and Weather.com describing an offshore track and forecasting any landfall for after September 25. Because no operational advisory or official Mexican or NHC statement said the center crossed the Mexican coastline on or before September 25, 2026 the condition was not met and the outcome is no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No67%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, credible news and meteorological outlets reporting on and before 2026-09-25 describe Hurricane Polo as remaining offshore of Mexico and being forecast to approach/make landfall only "early next week" (after Sept 25). Reuters (Sep 25) explicitly states Polo was "moving away from Mexico's Pacific coast and into open waters," and BBC, AccuWeather, UPI, NPR and Weather.com likewise report an offshore track with forecasts of a later landfall. None of the supplied sources report the storm's center crossing Mexican coastline on or before 2026-09-25, so the evidence supports NO.
Source: reuters.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 67%
- Predictions made
- 116
- Credits staked
- 2,460
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 22, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 23, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 26, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- reuters.com, accuweather.com, bbc.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
With just a few days left, the forecast suggests Polo will stay offshore. Unless there’s a last-minute official landing report, I wouldn’t count on it touching Mexican land.
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