🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 26 · Results Oct 27
Will Iran and Saudi Arabia announce Iran-mediated talks between Riyadh and the Houthis?
31%
-2% last 24h
553 bets · 18.9K credits2
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PoliticsOpened Sep 15 · Results Oct 1
Will Houthi forces still control the two Red Sea islands reported seized on Sept. 15, 2026?
80%
Stable · last 24h
📊 173 bettors💎 5.3K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 1🤖 Context
YES if, as of 00:00 (GMT+3) on October 1, 2026, credible reporting by two or more independent authoritative news organizations or public statements by the relevant national governments indicate Houthi forces were physically present on and exercising de facto control (controlling security, access, or administration) of both of the two Red Sea islands reported seized on Sept. 15, 2026. If reports show the islands were under the exclusive control of another state's military or an international force at that time, resolve NO. Contested claims that do not show Houthi physical presence and exercise of control do not count. Preferably per reporting by Reuters, BBC, AP, or public statements by the relevant national authorities.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes80%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 80% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Yes. As of September 15, 2026, the Houthis indeed controlled both the islands of Greater Hanish and Lesser Hanish, as confirmed by a clear timeline: AFP reported their capture on September 11, the Associated Press confirmed on September 14 that they were under Houthi control, and The Guardian reported again on September 15 their capture and control by the Houthis.
Source: theguardian.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 80%
- Predictions made
- 173
- Credits staked
- 5,347
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 15, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 30, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 1, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- theguardian.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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