Will Alaska have an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater with origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on November 2, 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on November 5, 2026, and with an epicenter located within Alaska (USA). Otherwise NO. • Only events classified by the USGS as earthquakes count, using the USGS-reported magnitude and origin time. • The origin time window is from 00:00 UTC on November 2, 2026 (inclusive) to 00:00 UTC on November 5, 2026 (exclusive). • Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 26%, based on 227 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

26%

Predictions made

227

Credits staked

10,017

Comments

4

Opened

Nov 1, 2026

Closes

Nov 2, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 5, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 2, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 5, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 26% and NO 74%, based on 227 predictions and 10K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Alaska have an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Alaska have an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.