Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

31%
-6% last 24h

34%
Stable · last 24h
Resolves YES if two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that officials of the European Commission physically travelled to the municipality of Ceuta and held on-site meetings in Ceuta on one or more days between 8 September 2026 and 14 September 2026 inclusive. Virtual-only meetings or meetings held only in Madrid, elsewhere in Spain, or outside Ceuta do not count. A European Commission press release or the Commission's official website can be used as supporting confirmation. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 34%, based on 4 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that today's date is the 8th, meetings can still happen, and if two credible outlets confirm it, they'll likely report soon. I'm optimistic about this one.

31%
-6% last 24h

26%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

69%
+6% last 24h

61%
+11% last 24h
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