🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 14
Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?
37%
Stable · last 24h
164 bets · 3.2K credits1
Details →PoliticsOpened Jul 24 · Results Aug 8
Will Donald Trump's approval be above 42% on August 7?
24%
Stable · last 24h
📊 57 bettors💎 1.3K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 8🤖 Context
YES if VoteHub's published national 'Approve' trailing 30-day average for Donald Trump's job approval for August 7, 2026, as shown on VoteHub's polls page, is strictly greater than 42.0% when observed at or after 00:00 on August 8, 2026 (UTC−04:00). If VoteHub shows multiple 'Approve' values, use the value labeled as the main headline national approve average, and if VoteHub shows a rounded percentage use the displayed rounded number. A value exactly equal to 42.0% resolves NO, and if VoteHub does not publish any numeric national 'Approve' average for that date or the polls page is unavailable at resolution time, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No24%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent trackers on and immediately before Aug. 7, 2026 show Trump’s national approval average around 38–39%, well below 42%. Ballotpedia explicitly states its index is a 30-day trailing average and reported 39% at the end of July, and daily updates since include similarly low polls. Nate Silver’s aggregate (Aug. 6) and RealClearPolitics’ average cited Aug. 7 also sit below 42%, confirming the 30-day average could not have exceeded 42% on Aug. 7.
Source: jacksonville.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 24%
- Predictions made
- 57
- Credits staked
- 1,271
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 24, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 7, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 8, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- jacksonville.com, news.ballotpedia.org, natesilver.net
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 💀@travis.goat🥈Bet No· 50 💎
He's a piece of crap
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 21 💎
there's no way trump hits 42% by then. he's more like a leaky balloon than a rising star. 🎈
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