Will a humanitarian ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian forces begin on October 27?

71%
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13%
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YES if, between October 9, 2026 and no later than November 30, 2026, Claudia Sheinbaum and Tatiana Clouthier hold a public, on-the-record meeting in which Morena's Nuevo León designation is discussed. Otherwise NO. • A public, on-the-record meeting means at least one public statement, press release, or press conference by either participant explicitly confirming the meeting and that Morena's Nuevo León designation was discussed. • Private meetings with no public statement do not count. Publicly announced meetings that are then explicitly cancelled do not count. • Source: Office of the President (Presidencia) or two or more independent Mexican national news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 13%, based on 409 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline and the political importance, it seems very likely Sheinbaum and Clouthier will meet publicly to discuss the Morena designation in Nuevo León. Expect at least one public statement during this period.

71%
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74%
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94%
Stable · last 24h

95%
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40%
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65%
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