Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?

24%
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73%
Stable · last 24h
YES if Météo‑France publishes on its official website, in an official bulletin, or on an official dataset page an explicit statement that no later than September 6, 2026 (local France time) at least one meteorological observation in metropolitan France recorded a new "highest-ever daily maximum temperature for the month of September", meaning the observed daily maximum strictly exceeded that site's previous official September maximum; ties do not count. If Météo‑France has not itself published a formal statement by the resolution date, YES can be resolved based on corroborating reports from multiple independent national news agencies that explicitly attribute the new-September-record claim to Météo‑France or to Météo‑France's official data. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 73%, based on 40 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current heatwave across France, it's highly plausible that at least one location will set a new September temperature record tomorrow. Météo-France is likely to document it.

24%
Stable · last 24h

35%
+1% last 24h

58%
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77%
+1% last 24h

50%
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61%
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