🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 27
Will the Falcon 9 first stage on Starlink 15-16 land successfully on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You'?
91%
Stable · last 24h
254 bets · 10.8K credits7
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ScienceOpened Sep 20 · Results Sep 22
Will at least one area in Spain have an orange or red wind warning on September 21?
55%
Stable · last 24h
📊 86 bettors💎 1.7K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 22🤖 Context
The market required that AEMET's Meteoalerta archive for 21 September 2026 show at least one Spanish area assigned an aviso of 'naranja' or 'rojo' specifically for wind at any time during the Spain local day, 00:00–23:59:59 CEST. AEMET's archived warnings for 21 September 2026 show that no area reached orange or red for any hazard that day and that wind warnings that do appear are only at yellow level. Because no area had an orange or red aviso for wind on 21 September 2026, the condition is not met and the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No55%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 55% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: At least one Spanish area had an AEMET Meteoalerta aviso of level 'naranja' or 'rojo' specifically for wind (viento) at any time during Spain local day 2026-09-21 (00:00–23:59:59 CEST). Observations used: AEMET archived warnings for 2026-09-21 state explicitly: 'At NARANJA or ROJO at any point on 2026-09-21: NONE — no área in Spain reached naranja or rojo for any hazard on this date.' The archive does list wind warnings but only at AMARILLO (yellow) for several áreas. Comparison: since no área reached naranja or rojo for any hazard (and wind is only listed at amarillo), the required condition (≥1 area with naranja or rojo for wind on 2026-09-21) is not met. Outcome: NO.
Source: aemet.esKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 55%
- Predictions made
- 86
- Credits staked
- 1,738
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 20, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 20, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 22, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- aemet.es
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
Given the current forecasts, it seems unlikely we'll see a naranja or rojo aviso for wind tomorrow. Right now, the highest is amarillo, so I'm betting NO.
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