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ScienceOpened Sep 28 · Results Sep 30
Will at least one area in Spain be on AEMET 'aviso naranja' (orange alert) or 'aviso rojo' (red alert) for rain on September 29?
85%
Stable · last 24h
📊 106 bettors💎 3.1K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 30🤖 Context
The market required that AEMET’s Meteoalerta archives for 29 September 2026 show at least one Spanish area ('ámbito') assigned an aviso naranja or aviso rojo for rain at any time between 00:00 and 23:59 CEST (UTC+02:00). The archive shows multiple such rain warnings that day, for example Litoral de Barcelona rojo from 08:00 to 11:59 CEST, Litoral norte de Tarragona rojo from 06:00 to 14:59 CEST, Depresión central de Barcelona naranja from 09:00 to 17:59 CEST, and Ampurdán naranja from 12:00 to 20:59 CEST. Because these archived entries explicitly list rain at naranja or rojo within 29 September 2026, the condition is met and the outcome is yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes85%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: At least one Spanish área (ámbito) was assigned aviso colour naranja or rojo for hazard 'rain' at any time between 2026-09-29 00:00 and 2026-09-29 23:59 CEST (UTC+02:00). Observations (from the supplied AEMET archive for 2026-09-29): multiple explicit 'rain' warnings at naranja/rojo on 2026-09-29, for example: - Litoral de Barcelona | rain | rojo | 2026-09-29T08:00:00+02:00 to 2026-09-29T11:59:59+02:00 - Litoral norte de Tarragona | rain | rojo | 2026-09-29T06:00:00+02:00 to 2026-09-29T14:59:59+02:00 - Depresión central de Barcelona | rain | naranja | 2026-09-29T09:00:00+02:00 to 2026-09-29T17:59:59+02:00 - Ampurdán | rain | naranja | 2026-09-29T12:00:00+02:00 to 2026-09-29T20:59:59+02:00 These entries explicitly list hazard 'rain' at naranja or rojo within the 2026-09-29 CEST day. Therefore the market condition is satisfied and the correct resolution is YES.
Source: aemet.esKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 85%
- Predictions made
- 106
- Credits staked
- 3,063
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 28, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 28, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 30, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- aemet.es
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given the current forecasts with multiple areas under orange alerts for rain, it’s highly likely at least one area in Spain will be under an orange or red alert on the 29th.
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