🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 30
Will Falcon 9 place all 27 Starlink V2 Mini satellites into low Earth orbit?
72%
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ScienceOpened Aug 9 · Results Aug 12
Will any place in France see a total solar eclipse on August 12?
23%
Stable · last 24h
📊 1406 bettors💎 45.1K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 12🤖 Context
YES if eclipse ephemerides or maps published by recognised astronomical authorities (for example NASA or IMCCE / Observatoire de Paris) and mainstream reporting show that at least one fixed point located within France’s internationally recognised territory was inside the path of totality for the 12 August 2026 solar eclipse (i.e., the Sun was completely obscured at that point for a non‑zero interval) on the local date 12 August 2026. Otherwise NO. This market is about the astronomical path only, weather or visibility do not affect the outcome.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No23%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 77% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Contemporaneous eclipse maps and news coverage in multiple independent, credible sources show the umbral path on 2026-08-12 crossed the Arctic/Greenland/Iceland and northern Iberia (northern Spain and a sliver of Portugal) but did not include metropolitan France or any French overseas departments. Authoritative mapping (National Solar Observatory) and mapping/graphics reports (Reuters, OrbitalRadar) list the countries under totality as Greenland, Iceland, Portugal (northern tip) and northern Spain; news coverage (CNN) and a French city-by-city summary (Linternaute) report French cities experiencing deep partial eclipses (e.g. Paris ~92%, Biarritz ~99.5%) rather than 100% totality. Because three or more independent credible outlets corroborate that no location in France lay inside the path of totality on 2026-08-12, the correct settlement is NO.
Source: reuters.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 23%
- Predictions made
- 1,406
- Credits staked
- 45,122
- Comments
- 12
- Opened
- Aug 9, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 11, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 12, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- reuters.com, nso.edu, cnn.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 12 comments
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