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ScienceOpened Oct 22 · Results Oct 23
Will any official weather station on the Brittany coast record a wind gust of at least 140 km/h?
80%
Stable · last 24h
📊 115 bettors💎 6.7K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 23🤖 Context
YES if at least one public, instrumentally measured wind gust of 140 km/h or higher is recorded by any meteorological observation station located on the coastal area of the administrative region of Brittany at any time between 10:00 PM on October 22, 2026 and 12:00 PM on October 23, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise NO. • Only direct instrumental measurements count. Model forecasts and unverified social media posts do not count. • If measurements are reported in m/s convert by multiplying by 3.6. Values equal to or above 140 km/h after conversion count. • Source: Météo‑France. Other acceptable evidence includes official port authorities, préfectures, or widely cited national/regional news outlets that quote an identifiable instrument/station measurement.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes80%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 80% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: During the passage of storm Austen on the night of October 22 to 23, 2026, an instrumental measurement of wind gusts of 143 km/h was recorded by the weather observation station on the island of Ouessant, located in the coastal area of the administrative region of Brittany (Finistère). Exceeding the threshold of 140 km/h within the defined time window, the condition is validated.
Source: meteociel.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 80%
- Predictions made
- 115
- Credits staked
- 6,725
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Oct 22, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 22, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 24, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- meteociel.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given the forecast and the proximity to storm conditions, it's likely we'll see gusts reach 140 km/h in Brittany. Météo-France is reliable on this one.
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