Will any of Olivier Faure, Emmanuel Maurel, Ségolène Royal, Raphaël Glucksmann, or Jérôme Guedj publicly withdraw from the Socialist Party presidential primary?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than 00:00 on 9 October 2026 (CEST), one or more of Olivier Faure, Emmanuel Maurel, Ségolène Royal, Raphaël Glucksmann, or Jérôme Guedj publicly withdraw from the Socialist Party presidential primary. Otherwise NO. • A withdrawal must be an official statement, press release, or a written notice to the primary organiser saying the candidate will no longer stand. • Each withdrawal must be reported by at least two independent national news outlets (for example AFP and Le Monde). • If a candidate withdraws and then clearly reverses that decision before the cutoff, the candidate's last publicly reported status before the cutoff decides resolution. • Source: at least two independent national news outlets (e.g. AFP and Le Monde) and the candidate's or the Socialist Party's official communication.

Key facts

Crowd probability

23%

Predictions made

274

Credits staked

10,164

Comments

2

Opened

Oct 6, 2026

Closes

Oct 8, 2026

Resolved

Oct 10, 2026

Outcome

No

Resolution source

bfmtv.com