Will an El Niño be explicitly declared as occurring?

77%
Stable · last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h
YES if any Météo‑France mountain observation station in the Pyrenees (official elevation >1500 m) records a measured fresh-snow accumulation of at least 1.0 cm during the calendar day 1 November 2026 (00:00–23:59 CET), otherwise NO. • Only measured fresh accumulation counts. Trace amounts (<1.0 cm) and anonymous or social‑media‑only claims do not count. • Prefer Météo‑France station observations or Météo‑France daily summaries. If Météo‑France station data for that day are unavailable, the market may resolve YES if at least two independent reputable outlets (AFP, Franceinfo, a regional prefecture bulletin, or major national newspapers) explicitly report measured new snow ≥1.0 cm at a named Pyrenean site with elevation >1500 m. If Météo‑France later revises a published observation, the final Météo‑France published value is used to settle the market. • Source: Météo‑France.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.go.link. For now, the crowd puts YES at 74%, based on 350 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI don't think it's for that soon. With all the climate issues, snow is becoming more and more desired...
and why not?
Given the current weather patterns and recent forecasts, it looks likely that the Pyrenees will see some fresh snow. Expecting at least 1.0 cm on November 1st seems reasonable.

77%
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62%
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55%
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59%
+1% last 24h

43%
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82%
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