Will the Falcon 9 first stage on Starlink 15-16 land successfully on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You'?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 19The market asked whether Météo‑France’s Vigilance archive map for September 18, 2026 shows at any time that day at least one metropolitan département, a coastal zone, or the national roll‑up 'FRANCE' at orange or red for the hazard 'Orages'. The official archived map for 18 September 2026 records no département, coastal zone or the national roll‑up at orange or red for any hazard, and for 'Orages' it shows only yellow in departments 04, 06, 2B, 83 and for FRANCE. Because no area reached orange or red for thunderstorms on that date, the condition is not met and the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled14%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 86% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: whether the official Météo‑France Vigilance archived map for 2026-09-18 shows at any time that day at least one metropolitan département, a coastal zone, or the national 'FRANCE' roll-up at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for the hazard 'Orages' (thunderstorms). Observations used: the supplied official archived map for 2026-09-18 (built from 2/2 snapshots) provides exhaustive lists. It explicitly states: 'At ORANGE or ROUGE at any point on 2026-09-18: NONE — no département, coastal zone or the national roll-up reached orange or rouge for any hazard on this date.' For the specific hazard 'Orages' the archive shows only JAUNE in 04, 06, 2B, 83, and FRANCE. Comparison: no area appears at orange or red for 'Orages' on 2026-09-18, so the market condition is not met → NO.
Source: vigilance.meteofrance.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the forecast shows thunderstorms at a yellow level, it's unlikely to hit orange or red on the 18th. So, I'm saying no.

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