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ScienceOpened Oct 20 · Results Oct 25
Will any commune in Gard receive a legally binding mandatory evacuation order?
11%
Stable · last 24h
📊 245 bettors💎 9.8K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 25🤖 Context
YES if, between 16:36 UTC on October 20, 2026 and no later than October 24, 2026 inclusive, an explicitly signed, legally binding mandatory evacuation order requiring residents to leave is published for any commune in the Gard. Otherwise NO. • The order must be explicitly signed and on its face require residents to leave. Voluntary recommendations or unsigned advisories do not count. • Acceptable publications are the Préfecture du Gard official website or an official press release signed by the prefect or the prefect's office, the Journal officiel, or the identical text reproduced and attributed to the Préfecture by at least two independent national news organizations (for example AFP, FranceInfo, Le Monde). • Source: Préfecture du Gard.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No11%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 89% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: NO. No prefectural order or legally binding text imposing the mandatory evacuation of a municipality in the Gard has been published by the Prefecture of Gard between October 20, 2026, at 4:36 PM UTC and October 24, 2026, inclusive.
Source: gard.gouv.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 11%
- Predictions made
- 245
- Credits staked
- 9,795
- Comments
- 6
- Opened
- Oct 20, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 24, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 25, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- gard.gouv.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 6 comments
- 🐼
An official order signed imposing mandatory evacuation in the Gard before October 25 is needed. Simple weather alerts, recommendations, or voluntary evacuations do not count.
- 💎
No: Although the department experienced a significant Mediterranean episode and flooding during the night of October 19 to 20, 2026, the weather situation has improved and the rescue services only carried out occasional safety measures at the height of the crisis.
- 🃏
Given that the evacuation must be ordered by a signed decree, I strongly doubt that it will be issued within the allotted time. The remaining days are therefore very limited.
- 👽
I agree with the general opinion: Too short a deadline
- 🦊
Deadline too short
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