Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?

73%
+1% last 24h

21%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, between 20:01 on October 26, 2026 and no later than 20:01 on November 26, 2026, Andy Burnham himself publicly and on the record calls for a referendum on the UK's freedom of movement arrangements with the EU. Otherwise NO. • The call must come from Andy Burnham in a public speech, an on‑the‑record interview, a written statement, or an explicit No 10 press release, and must directly and unambiguously call for a referendum. • Remarks that only propose starting a conversation or exploring options do not count. • Source: two or more independent authoritative news outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters, The Guardian).
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 26, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 21%, based on 5 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current political climate, it's unlikely Burnham will make such a definitive call for a referendum on freedom of movement in the next month. Too risky politically.

73%
+1% last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h

94%
Stable · last 24h

95%
+1% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h
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