Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?

76%
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38%
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Market closed. Awaiting resolution.
Results Nov 3YES if the Spanish Interior Ministry or the Minister publicly holds a negotiation meeting with representatives of the Policía Nacional and/or Guardia Civil unions to discuss retirement/pension terms between October 27, 2026 and no later than November 3, 2026. Otherwise NO. • The meeting must be described as a "reunión de negociación", "mesa de negociación" or equivalent and specifically address retirement or pension terms following the 27 October 2026 encierro. • A casual meeting, a photo opportunity, or a meeting described only as a "reunión informativa" does not count. • Source: EFE.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 3, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 38%, based on 17 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the tight timeline, it's unlikely that a formal negotiation meeting will be held before the deadline. Expectations are low, so I'm betting against it happening.

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74%
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95%
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33%
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40%
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