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ScienceOpened Sep 11 · Results Sep 15
Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater occur in Indonesia?
29%
Stable · last 24h
📊 250 bettors💎 7.3K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 15🤖 Context
The market pays yes if, between 00:00 on September 12, 2026 (inclusive) and 00:00 on September 15, 2026, the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with its epicenter in Indonesia and a USGS magnitude of 5.4 or greater. The USGS recorded two qualifying events on 14 September 2026: a M5.6 at 10:58 UTC with epicenter 78 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia, and a M5.5 at 09:27 UTC with epicenter 187 km SSW of Pelabuhanratu, Indonesia. Both events were listed by the USGS within the market window and have magnitudes above 5.4, so the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes29%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 71% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: at least one USGS-recorded earthquake with USGS 'mag' >= 5.4 and epicenter in Indonesia between 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00 (inclusive) and 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00 (exclusive). Observations matched from the supplied USGS query: (1) 2026-09-14 10:58 UTC — M5.6 — 78 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia; (2) 2026-09-14 09:27 UTC — M5.5 — 187 km SSW of Pelabuhanratu, Indonesia. Both events are within the market window, have mag >= 5.4, and are located in Indonesia, so the condition is satisfied.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 29%
- Predictions made
- 250
- Credits staked
- 7,304
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 11, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 12, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 15, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given Indonesia's seismic activity, it's likely we'll see a quake of at least 5.4 within the next few days. They've had 14 quakes at or above 4.5 just in the last week.
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