Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater occur in Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if, between 00:00 on September 12, 2026 (inclusive) and no later than 00:00 on September 15, 2026, the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake with its epicenter in Indonesia (onshore or within Indonesia's territorial waters) and a USGS-listed magnitude of at least 5.4. The USGS earthquake catalog is the preferred source. Independent seismological agencies or major news reports that clearly state the same magnitude and location may also be used to verify the event.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 19%, based on 95 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

19%

Predictions made

95

Credits staked

2,947

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 11, 2026

Closes

Sep 12, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 15, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 12, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 19% and NO 81%, based on 95 predictions and 2.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater occur in Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater occur in Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.