Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?

73%
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87%
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YES if Abdul El‑Sayed is listed as the winner of the Michigan U.S. Senate general election held on November 3, 2026 in the final certified statewide results. Otherwise NO. • The certified winner after all counts, recounts, and any ranked‑choice rounds determines the market. • Interim projections from the Associated Press or Reuters on November 3–4, 2026 may be used if official certification is not yet complete. • Source: Michigan Secretary of State.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 4, 2026. The outcome will be settled against nbcnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 87%, based on 420 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledAbdul El-Sayed's chances look promising with strong grassroots support and a focus on progressive issues. He's likely to be competitive come November 3.

73%
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74%
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94%
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95%
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40%
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65%
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