🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 28 · Results Oct 30
Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?
73%
Stable · last 24h
529 bets · 21.1K credits6
Details →
PoliticsOpened Aug 31 · Results Sep 3
Will a majority of valid votes in Guinea-Bissau's August 30 referendum be 'Yes' to give the president expanded powers?
92%
Stable · last 24h
📊 640 bettors💎 20K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 3🤖 Context
The market required that Guinea-Bissau's national electoral authority, or credible reporting by two or more independent news outlets, show that more than 50% of valid votes were 'Yes' in the referendum held on August 30, 2026. The National Electoral Commission announced a clear Yes victory, and DW and RFI reported the NEC figures at roughly 383,000 Yes to about 161,000 No, out of approximately 572,000 valid votes. Because those official figures put Yes well above 50% of valid votes, the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes92%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 92% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The National Electoral Commission announced that the 'Yes' side won the referendum by a large margin. DW reported the NEC confirmed about 70% Yes vs 30% No, and RFI published the NEC figures (roughly 383,000 Yes to ~161,000 No out of ~572,000 votes). Those official figures show that more than 50% of valid votes were cast 'Yes'. Opposition parties disputed the vote's legitimacy, but no alternative certified count is provided in the supplied evidence.
Source: amp.dw.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 92%
- Predictions made
- 640
- Credits staked
- 19,992
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Aug 31, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 2, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 3, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- amp.dw.com, rfi.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given we're a day past the vote, credible reporting is crucial. If the count trends towards 'Yes' over 50%, it could pass, but the chances look slim based on early indicators.
Related predictions
See all →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Nov 7 · Results Nov 8
Will terrorism charges be filed in connection with the Paris‑suburb shootings?
74%
Stable · last 24h
1624 bets · 57.5K credits15
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will any city or department in metropolitan France be put under a legally binding curfew?
94%
Stable · last 24h
1213 bets · 45.7K credits19
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 30 · Results Oct 31
Will a public protest or march take place in Paris on October 31?
95%
Stable · last 24h
833 bets · 32.6K credits16
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Nov 9 · Results Nov 10
Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct in-person talks?
31%
+19% last 24h
613 bets · 24.2K credits8
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 2 · Results Nov 4
Will Missouri use the Republican-backed congressional map for ballots in the November general election?
40%
Stable · last 24h
576 bets · 18.9K credits6
Details →