🌋Science·GeologyCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 28
Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?
28%
Stable · last 24h
230 bets · 9.7K credits4
Details →
ScienceOpened Oct 10 · Results Oct 14
Will a magnitude 5.7 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?
24%
Stable · last 24h
📊 266 bettors💎 10.5K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 14🤖 Context
The market required at least one USGS-listed earthquake of magnitude 5.7 or greater with its epicenter in Indonesia between 00:00 UTC on October 11, 2026 (inclusive) and 00:00 UTC on October 14, 2026 (exclusive). The USGS earthquake catalog returned zero earthquakes meeting that magnitude and location in that exact time window. Because the rule required one or more and the observed count was zero, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No24%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: At least one USGS-catalog earthquake with mag >= 5.7 and epicenter in Indonesia between 2026-10-11T00:00:00Z (inclusive) and 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z (exclusive). Matched observation: the USGS query for that exact window and bounding box (minmagnitude=5.7, starttime=2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00, endtime=2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00, lat -11..6, lon 95..141) returned 0 matching earthquake(s). Observed count = 0; required >= 1. The resolution window has closed (current time 2026-10-14T06:01:19Z), so the condition was not met. Therefore the market resolves NO.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 24%
- Predictions made
- 266
- Credits staked
- 10,546
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Oct 10, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 11, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 14, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 3 comments
- 💀
An earthquake of this magnitude occurs about every 12 to 18 days in Indonesia. Over a 3-day window, the mathematical probability of occurrence is about 18% to 22%.
- 🦊
No
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Indonesia has recorded 26 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5+ in the last week. With a suggested threshold of 5.7 and just hours left until the window opens, I'd bet on at least one quake occurring.
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