Will a magnitude 5.3 or greater earthquake occur in Japan?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with magnitude 5.3 or greater in Japan on or after 00:00 UTC on October 31, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on November 3, 2026, otherwise NO. • The USGS-listed magnitude at resolution time decides. If an event's magnitude is revised, the final USGS magnitude is used. • Source: USGS earthquake catalog.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 3, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 34%, based on 266 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

34%

Predictions made

266

Credits staked

9,957

Comments

2

Opened

Oct 30, 2026

Closes

Oct 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 3, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 3, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 34% and NO 66%, based on 266 predictions and 10K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 5.3 or greater earthquake occur in Japan?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 5.3 or greater earthquake occur in Japan?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.