ScienceResults Jul 20

Will a magnitude 5.1 or greater earthquake be recorded in the Japan region (latitude 30–46, longitude 128–146) before July 21, 2026?

48%

Stable · last 24h

📊 2 bettors💎 12 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 20

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog shows one or more events with reported magnitude 5.1 or greater whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 18, 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside latitude 30 to 46 and longitude 128 to 146 according to the USGS catalog. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

48%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 52% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: USGS FDSN query must show one or more events with reported magnitude >= 5.1, origin time >= 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00, and epicenter within latitude 30 to 46 and longitude 128 to 146. Target window: [2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00). Observed value (from the supplied USGS query result): 0 matching earthquake(s) — “(no matching earthquakes)”. Comparison: 0 events < 1 required, so the condition is not satisfied. Outcome: NO.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov