🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 28 · Results Oct 30
Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?
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PoliticsOpened Sep 26 · Results Oct 11
Is Sherrod Brown ahead of Jon Husted in the most recent Ohio Senate poll on Oct 10?
83%
Stable · last 24h
📊 411 bettors💎 8.1K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 11🤖 Context
The market pays yes if the most recent publicly released statewide general‑election poll for the Ohio U.S. Senate race (Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted) that publishes direct head‑to‑head numeric percentages shows Sherrod Brown’s percentage strictly greater than Jon Husted’s, where “most recent” means the poll with the latest fieldwork end date publicly posted by 12:00 AM EDT on October 11, 2026. The most recent qualifying poll had fieldwork ending October 6, 2026 and reported Jon Husted 46.0% and Sherrod Brown 45.0%. Because Brown’s 45.0% is not strictly greater than Husted’s 46.0%, the condition is not met and the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No83%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 83% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: As of 2026-10-11T00:00:00-04:00, the most recent publicly released statewide Ohio U.S. Senate poll (Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted) that publishes direct head-to-head numeric percentages must show Sherrod Brown's published percentage strictly greater than Jon Husted's. "Most recent" is defined by the latest fieldwork end date publicly posted by that time. Observations used: VoteHub data (latest per race as of 2026-10-10) lists the most recent qualifying Ohio Senate poll as co/efficient with fieldwork end date 2026-10-06 and topline Jon Husted 46.0%, Sherrod Brown 45.0% (numeric percentages for both candidates present). Comparison: Brown 45.0% is not strictly greater than Husted 46.0%, so the market condition is not met. Outcome: NO.
Source: votehub.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 83%
- Predictions made
- 411
- Credits staked
- 8,060
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 26, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 10, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 11, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- votehub.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 31 💎
Given the latest poll shows Brown at 47.8% and Husted at 47.3%, he's clearly ahead. This margin is likely enough to hold through to the next poll release.
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