Will DeepSeek's market share be above 23.5%?

40%
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34%
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Resolved: No
Results Aug 2YES if Polymarket's official resolution on the mirrored market page for "Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?" is officially YES by August 2, 2026. Otherwise NO. If Polymarket cancels or voids the event before the resolution date, this market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled34%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: This market is YES iff Polymarket's official resolution of the mirrored market 'Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?' is resolved as YES (Polymarket's 'Yes' outcome) by 2026-08-02; otherwise NO. Observed data (supplied): Polymarket official market state shows the mirrored question is marked resolved and lists outcome prices Yes=0, No=1. The supplied mapping says the side with price 1 is the officially resolved outcome. Therefore Polymarket's official resolution for 'Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?' is NO (No=1, Yes=0). The event is closed and not reported cancelled/void. Comparison: Polymarket did not resolve the mirrored market as YES; it resolved to NO, so this market resolves NO.
Source: clutch.vipSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledRooooo! We can't count on Claude!
No
It's huge 9 to 11 panes
pff, avec tout le bazar qu'il y a, je parie sur un grand oui. 9 à 11 pannes ? ça me semble facile pour Claude ! 🤷♂️

40%
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61%
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39%
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73%
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85%
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87%
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