Der Rückblick · 26. August 2026

Warum: Extracted condition: the price of the last executed Binance BTC/USDT trade with timestamp ≤ 2026-08-26T22:00:00Z must be ≥ $79,000. Target instant: 2026-08-26T22:00:00Z UTC. Observed value (from supplied Binance hourly data): price at 2026-08-26 22:00 UTC = 78724 USD. Comparison: 78,724 >= 79,000 is false. Therefore the market resolves NO.

Warum: Multiple news reports (including the market's own fetched page at 20minutos, dated 2026-08-17) state that the Phuket Court of Appeals had the appellate sentence ready and was sending the ruling to the Samui provincial court for public reading. La Vanguardia and other outlets (citing EFE) report the same development on 2026-08-17. Those reports indicate the appeals were decided (the appellate judgment was finalized and transmitted) on or before 2026-08-17, which is before the market deadline of 2026-08-26T23:59:00+07:00 (ICT).

Warum: All supplied, independent sources report Moke’s maximum 1‑minute sustained winds well below the hurricane threshold. The National Hurricane Center wind/probability product issued at 0900 UTC on 2026-08-25 explicitly labels the system as the “REMNANTS OF MOKE” with maximum sustained winds near 30 kt (≈35 mph). Hawaii Emergency Management (HIEMA/DOD) and multiple local/national news reports in the evidence consistently report peak sustained winds in the ~35–50 mph range and describe Moke weakening/dissipating. No page in the provided pool reports any 1‑minute sustained wind ≥74 mph at any time on or before 2026-08-26 00:00. On the basis of this corroborated evidence, Moke did not attain Saffir–Simpson Category 1 strength by the cutoff.

Warum: All supplied, independent sources consistently report that Moke’s center remained offshore and tracked south of the Island of Hawaii rather than crossing the coastline. Examples from the evidence: the National Hurricane Center (as cited by News4Jax/AP and CBS) located Moke’s center roughly 320 miles south/southwest of Hilo around midday and news copy states the storm’s center “passed south of the Big Island” on Sunday; the Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency advisory (HIEMA) forecast and briefed that the center was expected to pass south of the Big Island; Fox Weather and CBS similarly report the centre stayed south and forecasters cancelled coastal warnings as the system remained offshore. None of the provided pages reports the centre crossing the Big Island coastline on or before 00:00 HST on 2026-08-26. Those corroborated observations (reported Aug 23, 2026) constitute positive evidence that the storm centre did not make landfall by the deadline.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence explicitly report that Deportivo de La Coruña announced the signing of Adama Traoré on 26 August 2026. Examples in the evidence: Riazor.org published “OFICIAL | El Deportivo anuncia el fichaje de Adama Traoré hasta 2028” (26‑08‑2026); FutbolFantasy published “El Deportivo hace oficial el fichaje de Adama Traoré” (26‑08‑2026); La Voz de Galicia reports “Adama Traoré llega a A Coruña y firma hasta el 2028”. These items use unambiguous language ("OFICIAL", "ha oficializado", "firma") indicating a completed signing rather than merely reporting negotiations or a 'subject to medical' status. Under the arbiter rule that three or more independent credible outlets corroborating the same concrete outcome establish the fact, the evidence supports YES.

Warum: Multiple independent live-score/match-reporting sites in the supplied evidence record that Benjamin (B.) Bonzi defeated Rinky Hijikata in the Winston‑Salem match on 2026-08-26. Flashscore shows the match as Finished with Bonzi winning 6-1, 6-1; SofaScore shows the match Full-time with Bonzi winning 6-1, 6-1 (12 games to 2); Tennistonic also lists the result as 6-1, 6-1 on 2026-08-26. The ESPN scoreboard (the market's primary source page in the pool) also lists the matchup as a final result consistent with those scores. Because Hijikata did not record a win (the published score shows Bonzi as the winner), the correct settlement is NO.

Warum: Multiple independent sources report the match as completed on 2026-08-26 with Botic van de Zandschulp defeating Luciano Darderi 6-1, 6-0. The ATP Tour live page explicitly states “Game Set and Match Botic van de Zandschulp. Botic van de Zandschulp wins the match 6-1 6-0.” Tennis.com and ESPN show the same final score for the Winston‑Salem Round of 16 match, and SofaScore/Tennis Tonic list the match as scheduled for 14:00 (2:00 PM) local time on 26 Aug 2026, corroborating the timing and outcome.

Warum: The supplied official gamescom schedule and independent reporting confirm gamescom 2026 was an in-person event at Koelnmesse (26–30 Aug 2026). The official Opening Times page explicitly lists Wednesday 26.08.2026 as a Trade/Media day but shows halls/areas open and states that private visitors could be admitted from 13:00 only with a Wildcard (an early-access ticket). Independent previews (jeuxvideo, Yahoo/Tech and others in the pool) corroborate the same schedule and the limited early-access ticketing on 26 Aug. Thus exhibition halls were open at Koelnmesse on 2026-08-26 and ticketed private visitors (Wildcard holders) could be admitted that day.

Warum: Servimedia (26 Aug 2026) explicitly reports that the Diputación Permanente of the Congreso rejected all of the Popular Party’s requests for urgent appearances of ministers at the 26‑Aug session. EFE (26 Aug 2026) corroborates that the PP withdrew its request for Pedro Sánchez’s appearance (because the Government scheduled Sánchez for 3 Sep). The Congreso’s published orden del día for the Diputación Permanente (DP_007_082026.pdf) shows the PP initiatives were on the agenda for 26 Aug 2026. I find no evidence among the supplied pages that any PP initiative to urgently summon the prime minister or any of the ministers was approved; the direct report from Servimedia is positive evidence that they were all rejected, so the correct settlement is NO.

Warum: Multiple independent news reports quoting the National Weather Service damage survey show the Dover, DE tornado (the one NWS identified over Dover Speedway around ~6:18 PM on Aug. 20, 2026) was rated EF‑1 with estimated peak winds ~100–105 mph. Sources in the evidence pool (including a Mount Holly NWS tweet/PNS reported by NBC Philadelphia and news organizations such as Delaware Online, WMDT, Delaware Public Media, FOX Weather and 6abc) consistently report an EF‑1 rating; none of the supplied pages report an EF‑2 or greater for that tornado. Therefore, based on the provided evidence, the NWS did not assign EF‑2 or greater.

Warum: The supplied, independent news reports show negotiations collapsed and the United States moved forward with 50% tariffs (taking effect Aug 22, 2026) while Canada announced retaliatory tariffs — not a joint U.S.-Canada agreement to forgo those levies. Reuters, AP, NPR, CNBC and BBC (among others in the evidence) unambiguously report the tariffs went into effect on Aug 22 after talks failed and that Canada would retaliate; none of the provided sources contains a public bilateral announcement that the U.S. would not impose the proposed 50% tariffs and describing measures to prevent their implementation on or before Aug 25, 2026. (A Trump social-media post claiming a brief delay/‘deal’ is reported in the pool but was not corroborated as a formal bilateral agreement and talks later broke down.)

Warum: Extracted condition: count of main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts by @elonmusk on X during the interval 12:00 PM ET on 2026-08-22 through 12:00 PM ET on 2026-08-24 is strictly fewer than 40 -> YES; otherwise NO. Target window: 2026-08-22 12:00 PM ET to 2026-08-24 12:00 PM ET. Observed evidence (from supplied Polymarket data): the mirrored Polymarket market “Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?” is marked resolved and closed with outcome prices Yes=0, No=1 — i.e. Polymarket’s official resolution was NO. The market rule requires resolving identically to Polymarket’s official resolution, so this market resolves NO. Decisive evidence date is the end of the counted interval, 2026-08-24.

Warum: Extracted condition: the recorded daily maximum temperature for Mexico City for the local calendar day 2026-08-25 (00:00–23:59 America/Mexico_City) must be >= 22.0 °C. Preference rule: use Open-Meteo if it provides a numeric daily maximum for that date. Supplied Open-Meteo observation: 2026-08-25 daily maximum = 21.4 °C (marked recorded). Comparison: 21.4 °C < 22.0 °C, so the condition is not met -> NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: The market KXITFMATCH-26AUG24WANTAN-WAN must be marked 'finalized' with Official finalized result 'YES' (indicating Kai‑i Wang is recorded as the winner after play began). Target observation: the Kalshi ticker's Official finalized result for that ticker. Observed value(s): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: YES (from the supplied Kalshi ticker data). Comparison: Official finalized result equals the required 'YES', so the market condition is satisfied -> outcome YES.

Warum: Extracted condition: Open-Meteo daily maximum temperature for New York City on Tuesday, 2026-08-25 (New York local day 00:00–23:59) >= 27.0 °C. Observed value: Open-Meteo 'temperature_2m_max' for 2026-08-25 = 26.6 °C (recorded). Comparison: 26.6 °C < 27.0 °C, so the condition is not met. Decisive observation is the Open-Meteo recorded daily max for 2026-08-25; therefore the market resolves NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: the first reading of Apple Music France — Most Played observed at or after 2026-08-26 10:00 UTC must show the #1 entry with a title containing 'Maladie' (case-insensitive) and an artist credit containing 'Mauvais Djo'. Target instant/window: on or after 2026-08-26 10:00 UTC. Observed authoritative feed reading timestamp: 2026-08-26 12:01 UTC (>= target). Observed #1 entry in that reading: "Maladie" — Mauvais Djo. Title contains 'Maladie' and artist credit contains 'Mauvais Djo', so the condition is satisfied. Therefore outcome: YES.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence report that the 'Gran Final' (episode 8) of Cien años de soledad was scheduled to premiere on Netflix on 26 August 2026 and that it would be available in Mexico that day. Examples from the pool: El Financiero (article listing the Gran Final on 26 August), CNN en Español (notes the episode final will arrive 26 August), Milenio and Infobae (both state the finale is set for 26 August), and RPP (article updated 2026-08-26 01:57) explicitly states the final 'se estrena' on 26 August and lists Mexico release time. Under the arbiter's corroboration rule — three or more independent credible outlets reporting the same concrete, dated outcome — this establishes that the Gran Final was available to stream on Netflix for users in Mexico on 2026-08-26. Minor differences in reported local clock times across outlets do not affect the date of availability.

Warum: Extracted condition: The first Apple Music Spain — Most Played feed reading observed at or after 2026-08-26T10:00:00Z must have the #1/top item whose title equals or begins with 'LA GRACIOSA' (case-insensitive) and whose artist field contains both 'Quevedo' and 'Elvis Crespo'. Target instant/window: first reading at or after 2026-08-26 10:00 UTC. Observed authoritative reading: 2026-08-26 11:00 UTC (the supplied feed is the first reading at/after the target). Observed #1: "BbY WOW" — KAROL G, Judeline & rusowsky. Observed #2: "LA GRACIOSA" — Quevedo & Elvis Crespo. Comparison: the top item is not 'LA GRACIOSA' credited to Quevedo & Elvis Crespo, so the condition is not met. Outcome: NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: Brent (DCOILBRENTEU) closing price for 2026-08-21 >= 94.00 USD/bbl (per FRED). Supplied FRED data shows no value for 2026-08-21, so per the rule use the most recent prior business day with a published FRED value. The most recent prior published FRED value in the supplied data is 2026-08-18 = 95.29 USD/bbl. Comparison: 95.29 >= 94.00 → condition met. Therefore outcome YES.